Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has declined considerably over the past few days, even losing a critical support level. This seems to have triggered investors’ hopes of the altcoin season beginning, but the truth appears to be rather different.
Bitcoin Dominance Slips
Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $57,000 at the time of writing after losing the psychological support level of $60,000 this week. This resulted in Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) also falling considerably.
BTC dominance was observing a macro uptrend that had been unbroken since the beginning of the year. However, the end of June and the beginning of July have not been kind to the crypto market, resulting in BTC slipping below the uptrend line. Currently, this dominance is at 54.70%.
This led to many believing that the altcoin season could have begun. However, as Bitcoin fell, so did most of the altcoins in the market. Many, such as Arbitrum (ARB), even noted a new all-time low.
Observing the performance of the top 50 non-stablecoin altcoins, we can see that only seven tokens noted gains. In all, about 13 tokens managed to outperform BTC, of which five noted losses.
Generally, for the altcoin season to begin, at least 75% of these 50 tokens, i.e., 38 altcoins, must perform better than Bitcoin. Since that is far from the case, it can be said that the market still has a while before it observes the beginning of the altcoin season.
How Far Away Is Altcoin Season?
The Altcoin Season index shows that owing to the market-wide losses, Bitcoin season is currently active. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with values below 25 signalling Bitcoin Season, and at the moment, it is at 24.
When this value is above 75, the Altcoin Season is considered active, which could take a few months. Last time, it took the market about three months to shift from BTC to Altcoin season. If the same interval is considered this time, one can expect the latter to begin by early October.
